๐ฆ๐ก๐ญ ๐ ๐ถ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐ง๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐
โขNet migration to NZ dropped to +๐ญ๐ฑ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ in the year to May 2025, down from +80,300 a year earlier and +135,000 in Oct 2023.
โขNZ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฏ๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ผ ๐๐๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐น๐ถ๐ฎ in 2024.
โขStats NZ data long-term average for May years (2002โ2019) shows +๐ญ๐ญ๐ต,๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ต๐ญ,๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฒ๐, supporting the notion of large gross flows as currently experienced.
๐ฆ๐๐บ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป๐
โข๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐น ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐: Landlords struggle to find tenants, notably in main North Island centres.
โขFor the South Island, ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฆ๐๐ฎ๐๐.๐ก๐ญ shows Westcoast, Southland and Otago experienced high annual rental growth, potentially driven by tourism recovery and limited local supply.
โขCommentary from property analysts and landlord surveys (e.g., Crockers Property Management) suggest Canterburyโs rental market remains firm.
โข๐๐ผ๐๐๐ฒ๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด: Growth is restrained due to weak migration. However, according to the Electronic Card Transactions: June 2025 Retail spending increased by 0.5% in June 2025 compared to May 2025
โข๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐ผ๐๐ฟ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐: Availability is currently strong but may tighten when the economy improves.
๐ฆ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ
โขAccording to ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐น๐ผ๐ฐ๐ถ๐๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ป๐๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฒ๐ฝ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ โ ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฑ The New Zealand housing market remained largely flat through the first half of 2025. The national Valocity Value Index dipped by $4,000 since March and $8,500 since the beginning of the year, ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ณ๐น๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ ๐ฌ.๐ญ๐ฒ% ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ. The ๐ถ๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐น๐๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ $๐ต๐ฒ๐ด,๐ฑ๐ฌ๐ฌ.
โขAccording to ๐ฅ๐๐๐ก๐ญ data, the ๐ป๐๐บ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฝ๐ฟ๐ผ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐ผ๐น๐ฑ across New Zealand in June 2025 ๐ถ๐ป๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ.๐ฏ% compared to June 2024, rising from 4,877 to 5,865 sales.
โขAverage time to sell increased to ๐ฑ๐ฌ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐, up from 47.
๐ฆ๐๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐
โขThe latest ๐ข๐ณ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ถ๐ฎ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต ๐ฅ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ (OCR) announcement from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) was made on 9 July 2025 with the ๐ข๐๐ฅ ๐ต๐ฒ๐น๐ฑ ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ.๐ฎ๐ฑ%, ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ป ๐ญ๐ญ-๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ-๐ฐ๐๐๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฐ๐๐ฐ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ต๐ฎ๐ฑ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ณ๐ฟ๐ผ๐บ ๐ฎ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฑ.๐ฑ% ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐๐ด๐๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฐ
โข๐ก๐ญ ๐๐ต๐ผ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฎ๐น๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐ฏ๐น๐ฒ; mortgage rate changes will likely be driven by bank competition going forward.
โขSuggested borrowing strategy: while every borrower situation is different and needs to be considered, we always consider a fixed rate spread though ๐น๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ผ๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ๐ ๐ฏ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฐ.๐ต๐ต%.
