Following the RBNZโs closely split decision on 27 May to hold the OCR at 2.25%, the outlook from both the RBNZ and Bank economists has clearly shifted more hawkish.
๐ญ๐ฎ-๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ฒ๐ป๐๐๐ ๐๐ถ๐ฒ๐:
Bank economists are increasingly aligned that the OCR will be higher over the next year, with forecasts generally pointing to at least 50โ100 basis points of increases within 12 months. Some, like ANZ, suggest the path could be earlier and steeper than previously expected, reflecting inflation risks and the need to stay ahead of the curve.
The fact that several RBNZ committee members already favoured an immediate hike with the governor having to break a tied committee decision reinforces this trajectoryโand signals the tightening cycle is not far off.
๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ ๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ ๐ฆ
The consensus is building toward a rising rate environment through the next 12 months, rather than a prolonged hold. For borrowers, this is a strong signal to plan now for higher mortgage costs ahead.
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